Difference between revisions of "Post-scarcity"

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[[Image:Cornucopia.jpg|right|180px|Cornucopia]]
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The '''post-scarcity age''' is an anticipated period where due to advancing technology, efficient use of natural resources and co-operation there will be a great abundance of the material items, goods and services that people need, achievable with a minimal impact to the environment. It should not matter where you live.
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Many fictional visions of post scarcity involve as yet undeveloped technologies and unproven theories but it is interesting to note that material abundance can be produced with existing technologies. Food is one example, where there is more than enough for everyone on the planet, but it is logistics, politics and economics that prevents a more egalitarian distribution. There exists far more energy, raw material and biological resources on Earth than humanity requires, it is a matter of developing systems that use and distribute them more efficiently.
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When humanity reaches the point of developing [[closed-loop automation]], everything from basics like clean water, nutritious food, medicine and suitable housing to increasingly essential material goods such as vehicles, computers, mobile phones and all the way up to purely luxury items, could be easily and freely available to anyone that requires them. It would be foolish to think there will be totally unrestricted abundance, but it should be possible to abolish ''significant scarcity'' for all people within the first half of this century.
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The simplest analogy is that of a vast jungle providing fruit in abundance for anyone to eat; but in this scenario the jungle is highly autonomous distributed machinery that has been [[Open collaborative design|transparently and collaboratively designed]].
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== Abundance of the fundamental resources ==
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;Do we really have the resources for this kind of society?
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:Civilisation boils down to four fundamentals: [[Fundamental_resources#Material|material]], [[Fundamental_resources#Energy|energy]], [[Fundamental_resources#Information|information]] and [[Fundamental_resources#Machine intelligence|intelligence]] – none of which are in short supply. It is the current inefficient methods of use (and re-use) and perceived economic restrictions that make it appear that there are significant limitations to these resources.
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:See the [[fundamental resources]] page for more information on resource availability.
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;How do we design machinery advanced enough to give us all of this?
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:See the [[open design]] and [[Advanced closed-loop automation|closed-loop automation]] pages.
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== What does this mean for people and society? ==
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It means all worthy projects that should happen, can happen - the resource will be available if there are the people to make it happen. It will not only provide everyone with the basic necessities for a decent life but give maximum opportunity for people and societies to live and prosper how they might like to.
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This means different things to different people. For some it enables a life enhanced by advanced technology, able to do new things they have never been able to before, and for others it means almost the exact opposite - allowing them to lead a more basic rural life perhaps with a smallholding, more in touch with nature and older ways of living. But they can they can do this without worrying about a bad year in terms of yield from the land or medical care because of the advanced infrastructure in the background that they can call upon if required.
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It means we can have enough time to think about the really important things and do them properly.
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People will not have to suffer drudgery and what amounts to wage slavery during the best years of their lives. Unfortunately a large proportion of people today in both white and blue collar jobs would really rather be doing something else than the jobs they are employed to do. They feel perhaps that what they are doing is not directly relevant to their lives or is not particularly interesting and feel they are simply a cog with little control in a larger machine. Currently they have to do it to afford food, shelter and goods. A post-scarcity society enables them to have the time and space to work on things that are important to them, and to learn the skills needed to reach their goals and have room to be more creative.
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One scarce resource today for people is time. In a post-scarce culture, not having to spend the best part of the day working for a living also frees people up to spend more time with each other - something that is vital for a proper community. Both for friendship and mentoring the next generation.
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However some people feel that increasing automation is a threat. A threat to their livelihoods, a threat to humanity's pride even. The reality is that automation is likely to provide in scenarios where people would prefer not to do that job. It leaves people free to be creative and industrious in activities that they want to be part of and allows for greater variety than the average working life offers today. [[Open collaborative design|Open design]] will enable people to be involved in the creation or customisation of the goods they want in a way not seen before and reverses the trend of people simply being passive consumers. Creativity is something that can give huge satisfaction to people but if not fulfilled can cause great frustration.
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==See also==
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*[[Scarcity]]
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==External links==
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===Wikipedia===
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*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_scarcity Post scarcity]
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*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gift_economy Gift economy]
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==More post-scarcity thinking==
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*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacque_Fresco Jacque Fresco] - [http://www.thevenusproject.com ''The Venus Project''] (and [http://www.futurebydesignthemovie.com ''Future by Design''] which is a documentary film about Jacque)
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*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Buckminster_Fuller Buckminster Fuller] - "It is now highly feasible to take care of everybody on Earth at a 'higher standard of living than any have ever known.' It no longer has to be you or me. Selfishness is unnecessary and henceforth unrationalizable as mandated by survival." [http://www.bfi.org bfi.org]
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*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K._Eric_Drexler Eric Drexler] - Author of ''[http://www.e-drexler.com/d/06/00/EOC/EOC_Table_of_Contents.html Engines of Creation]'' and prophet of molecular nanotechnology. He describes [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molecular_assembler molecular assemblers] as "engines of abundance
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*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_McCarthy_%28computer_scientist%29 John McCarthy] - Prominent computer scientist. He has some interesting information on his website about the [http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress sustainability of human progress].
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*[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Brain Marshall Brain] - the 'Australia project' in the story of ''[http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm Manna]''
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Revision as of 18:26, 17 February 2007

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Intro

Cornucopia (the horn of plenty)
The post-scarcity age is an anticipated period where due to advancing technology, efficient use of natural resources and co-operation there should exist a great abundance of the material items that everyone needs, achieved with a minimal impact to the environment.

Many fictional visions of post scarcity involve as yet undeveloped technologies but the reality is that global material abundance can be produced with current technologies. Food is one example, where there is more than enough produced for everyone on the planet [1], but politics, economics and logistics prevent fair distribution. The bottom line is that in the fundamental resources of this planet there exists many orders of magnitude more energy, raw material and biological resources than humanity requires, it is a matter of developing systems that use and distribute them more efficiently.

By employing open collaborative design, digital manufacturing and advanced automation in combination, everything we need should be trivial to fabricate and distribute — from the basics like clean water, good quality food, medicine and suitable housing, to increasingly essential material goods such as vehicles, computers and mobile phones – all the way up to purely luxury items. Decentralizing production of these things will also allow more equal access to them and sidestep many of the issues involved in distributing them. These methods could overcome nearly all significant scarcity that persists due to the economic framework we have inherited from previous eras. This isn't to say what is proposed here will happen, but that it could happen – it is feasible from a physical and technological viewpoint. It is a matter of spreading the knowledge that these things are possible and enough people choosing to work towards it.

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Sections

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Material and energy for a post-scarcity society

Do we really have the resources for this kind of society?

Civilisation boils down to four fundamentals: material, energy, information and intelligence – none of which are in short supply. It is the current inefficient methods of use (and re-use) and perceived economic restrictions that make it appear that there are significant limitations to these resources.

Specifically, using currently existing technology...

  • We can provide abundant clean water for everyone on Earth.
  • We can produce enough food to feed at least 80 billion people without harming the environment
  • We can meet our energy needs at least ten times over using clean, renewable energy
  • We can build cheap, high-quality houses in a day or two, providing shelter for the billion people currently living in slums
  • We can build technology of any complexity from free open-source designs and digitally fabricate them for the price of raw materials. (And these raw materials are themselves extremely abundant.) With every year that goes by, the methods of fabrication become more decentralized (see: Fab Labs) and the open-source designs become better, making this a more attractive option.
  • We can spread cheap, mobile Internet access to everyone on Earth, allowing them to connect to the world's informational and educational resources. Through open collaboration, this can network vast amounts of human intelligence, which can greatly accelerate scientific and technological progress.
  • We can make free educational materials available on the Internet, providing free education of unprecedented quality to everyone on Earth
  • We can organize the World's medical knowledge, so that people have access to the highest-quality medical information and advice at all times.

How do we create an infrastructure advanced enough to provide all of this? See the open collaborative design and advanced automation pages.

Template:Frame1More post-scarcity thinking

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What does this mean for people and society?

It could provide the resources for bringing a high quality of life to those that are not currently fortunate enough to have the amenities and services of 'developed' nations. Worthy projects that really ought to happen, can happen – and in fact this applies just as much to advanced nations where there is still plenty of inequality and missed opportunities. It will not only provide everyone with the basic necessities for a decent life but give maximum opportunity for people and societies to live and prosper how they might like to.

This means different things to different people. For some it enables a life enhanced by advanced technology, able to do new things they have never been able to before, and for others it means almost the exact opposite - allowing them to lead a more basic rural life perhaps with a smallholding 11px-Wikipedia_logo.jpg, more in touch with nature and older ways of living. But they can do this without worrying about a bad year in terms of yield from the land or medical care because of the advanced infrastructure in the background that they can call upon if required.

Post-scarcity almost by definition implies 'post-economic' as economics is based on scarcity. A post-scarcity society means that the basic necessities of living (and plenty more) will be available for everyone who requires it. There may well still be markets for certain items that have purposefully not been made publicly available or are rare, but for many people this will be irrelevant. It will be a choice and not a necessity to enter that market. The important point here is that for the first time the general population will be able to live comfortably without having to owe anyone else their time.

People will not have to suffer drudgery and what amounts to wage slavery during the best years of their lives. Unfortunately a large proportion of people today in both white and blue collar jobs would really rather be doing something else than the jobs they are employed to do. They feel perhaps that what they are doing is not directly relevant to their lives or is not particularly interesting and feel they are simply a cog with little control in a larger machine. Currently they have to do it to afford food, shelter and goods. A post-scarcity society enables them to have the time and space to work on things that are important to them, and to learn the skills needed to reach their goals and have room to be more creative.

One scarce resource today for people is time. In a post-scarcity culture, not having to spend the best part of the day working for a living also frees people up to spend more time with each other - something that is vital for a proper community. Both for friendship and mentoring the next generation.

However some people feel that increasing automation is a threat. A threat to their livelihoods, a threat to humanity's pride even. The reality is that automation is likely to provide in scenarios where people would prefer not to do that job. It leaves people free to be creative and industrious in activities that they want to be part of and allows for greater variety than the average working life offers today. Open design will enable people to be involved in the creation or customisation of the goods they want in a way not seen before and reverses the trend of people simply being passive consumers. Creativity is something that can give huge satisfaction to people but if not fulfilled can cause great frustration and dissatisfaction. It enables an individual to have more control over their environment and life.

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See also

Internal links

External links

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